Barack Obama will likely be mentioning his upcoming foreign policy quandaries when he sits on Santa’s lap at the mall this year (how much would you love to see that picture?). Here, I take a look at some of the top issues that he’ll ask for help in solving:
1. Afghanistan – The war here is not going well. Fueled by the immense corruption of Hamid Karzai’s government, the illegal opium trade (which supplies 90% of the world’s opium) is inadvertently enriching former Taliban fighters. Osama bin Laden has long since fled into Pakistan, and the NATO force has been left a historically disunited country led by tribal warlords. Additionally, individual NATO countries on the ground have had widely different approaches to the situation, which could throw off the balance in certain key areas. Afghanistan has become, in short, a mess, and it will be up to the Obama administration to sort it out to prevent the country from once again becoming a haven for those who threaten world security.
2. Iran – A nuclear Iran is on no one’s wish list this Christmas. I’m hopeful that the recent plummet in the price of oil, which will significantly restrict Ahmedinejad’s spending, will convince the regime in Tehran to take seriously the carrots and sticks offered by the new administration. Worrisome, however, is what may happen if they don’t. Many in the Arab world say they would be “perfectly fine” with either a diplomatic or military solution. Ironically, most Arab countries, despite their varying discomfort with Israel, would rather Israel take out Iran’s nuclear capacity with their own nukes because they trust Israel to not use their nuclear weapons. On the other hand, they believe that a nuclear Iran would attempt to become a regional military hegemon at their expense.
3. Pakistan - A nuclear-armed state with a teetering government is always a recipe for disaster. One whose state organs sponsor terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba group that is believed to have carried out the Mumbai attacks last month is even worse. Pakistan’s oppressive government with its lukewarm commitment to rooting out al Qaeda members within its borders has always been a delicate issue for the U.S. government. Likely, President-elect Obama will have to make tough decisions early in his presidency about the extent to which American forces will raid into Pakistan to fight jihadists there and the question of how best to encourage Pakistan’s government to reform without causing it to fall.
4. Iraq – A new Status of Forces Agreement signed by the U.S. and Iraq in the last week ensures that the U.S. military will vacate the country by the end of 2011. This seems to alleviate one of the new president’s first problems (what to do about Iraq?) but it means that the U.S. must be vigilant to prevent a loss of the remarkable, and delicate, stability which has come to Iraq in the last year or so.
5. Africa – Africa is a continent of both great hopes and great fears. Sub-Saharan Africa seems poised on the verge of increased foreign investment and attention. But the new administration will have to deal with quite a few problems. It’s difficult to choose the most pressing, so I’ll outline them in no particular order:
Zimbabwe – Robert Mugabe has ravaged his country in the last 25 years. At present, inflation stands at a mind-blowing 230 million percent and unemployment is nearing 90%. And as if matters couldn’t get worse, the government last week announced a national emergency due to a cholera epidemic. With most hospitals crippled already, it will be almost impossible to deal with this threat. Mugabe lost out on billions in desperately-needed aid from the U.S. and the U.K. by not giving the opposition party even one major cabinet post. He’s a madman who must go.
Darfur – With countless millions killed or displaced due to one of the world’s worst genocides and a president who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, Sudan is a mess as well. The joint UN-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) has been shaky at best. The new administration must put significant pressure on the international community to step in, and must make the AU realize that if they cannot deal with Darfur on their own, the UN must take a larger role.
Congo – The numbers reached by the crisis in the Congo rival those of Darfur. Perhaps 4 million have been killed or displaced by fighting between the government and the forces of rebel Laurent Nkunda. The Congolese military, along with MONUC, the UN Mission in the Congo, have held the eastern city of Goma from falling, but the situation remains perilous, with Nkunda threatening to march all the way to Kinshasa to take the capital.
Somalia – Called by the Economist “The World’s Most Utterly Failed State,” Somalia hasn’t had a central government in over 15 years. With no way to police its own waters, this political chaos has led to a spree of piracy that severely threatens international shipping lanes through the Gulf of Aden.
Runners up – Chad (massive spillover from Darfur), Egypt (government more and more repressive and unable to deal with problems), Nigeria (major oil pipelines threatened by rebels) and Uganda (Lord’s Resistance Army fighting in the north).
Runner Up – The new wild card on the foreign policy front is Russia. While it’s unlikely the former superpower wields as much power as it thinks it does, Russia can upset the politics of Europe and international bodies if it chooses. And it’s certainly shown a willingness to interfere in the largely domestic issues of its neighbors (and former SSRs). And of course, there’s Vladimir Putin, working to bring back the state control of the former USSR. I’m not as concerned as some are that he’ll succeed and that Russia will regain the focus it had during the Cold War, but it will be crucial for the new administration to warm relations with Russia through finding common ground with Russia on issues such as a nuclear Iran.
That was a far longer post than I first envisioned but I think it only touches on some of President-elect Obama’s biggest foreign policy threats. I haven’t even talked about North Korea, the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, China, or India, after all. I’ll save those for next time. Until then, stay tuned!
This entry was posted on 15 December 2008 at 13:13:36 PM and is filed under Commentary, International . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Obama’s Foreign Policy Christmas List
Barack Obama will likely be mentioning his upcoming foreign policy quandaries when he sits on Santa’s lap at the mall this year (how much would you love to see that picture?). Here, I take a look at some of the top issues that he’ll ask for help in solving:
1. Afghanistan – The war here is not going well. Fueled by the immense corruption of Hamid Karzai’s government, the illegal opium trade (which supplies 90% of the world’s opium) is inadvertently enriching former Taliban fighters. Osama bin Laden has long since fled into Pakistan, and the NATO force has been left a historically disunited country led by tribal warlords. Additionally, individual NATO countries on the ground have had widely different approaches to the situation, which could throw off the balance in certain key areas. Afghanistan has become, in short, a mess, and it will be up to the Obama administration to sort it out to prevent the country from once again becoming a haven for those who threaten world security.
2. Iran – A nuclear Iran is on no one’s wish list this Christmas. I’m hopeful that the recent plummet in the price of oil, which will significantly restrict Ahmedinejad’s spending, will convince the regime in Tehran to take seriously the carrots and sticks offered by the new administration. Worrisome, however, is what may happen if they don’t. Many in the Arab world say they would be “perfectly fine” with either a diplomatic or military solution. Ironically, most Arab countries, despite their varying discomfort with Israel, would rather Israel take out Iran’s nuclear capacity with their own nukes because they trust Israel to not use their nuclear weapons. On the other hand, they believe that a nuclear Iran would attempt to become a regional military hegemon at their expense.
3. Pakistan - A nuclear-armed state with a teetering government is always a recipe for disaster. One whose state organs sponsor terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba group that is believed to have carried out the Mumbai attacks last month is even worse. Pakistan’s oppressive government with its lukewarm commitment to rooting out al Qaeda members within its borders has always been a delicate issue for the U.S. government. Likely, President-elect Obama will have to make tough decisions early in his presidency about the extent to which American forces will raid into Pakistan to fight jihadists there and the question of how best to encourage Pakistan’s government to reform without causing it to fall.
4. Iraq – A new Status of Forces Agreement signed by the U.S. and Iraq in the last week ensures that the U.S. military will vacate the country by the end of 2011. This seems to alleviate one of the new president’s first problems (what to do about Iraq?) but it means that the U.S. must be vigilant to prevent a loss of the remarkable, and delicate, stability which has come to Iraq in the last year or so.
5. Africa – Africa is a continent of both great hopes and great fears. Sub-Saharan Africa seems poised on the verge of increased foreign investment and attention. But the new administration will have to deal with quite a few problems. It’s difficult to choose the most pressing, so I’ll outline them in no particular order:
Runner Up – The new wild card on the foreign policy front is Russia. While it’s unlikely the former superpower wields as much power as it thinks it does, Russia can upset the politics of Europe and international bodies if it chooses. And it’s certainly shown a willingness to interfere in the largely domestic issues of its neighbors (and former SSRs). And of course, there’s Vladimir Putin, working to bring back the state control of the former USSR. I’m not as concerned as some are that he’ll succeed and that Russia will regain the focus it had during the Cold War, but it will be crucial for the new administration to warm relations with Russia through finding common ground with Russia on issues such as a nuclear Iran.
That was a far longer post than I first envisioned but I think it only touches on some of President-elect Obama’s biggest foreign policy threats. I haven’t even talked about North Korea, the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, China, or India, after all. I’ll save those for next time. Until then, stay tuned!
This entry was posted on 15 December 2008 at 13:13:36 PM and is filed under Commentary, International . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.