The wake of Christmas has not brought much cheer to the Middle East, or the incoming Obama administration, as Israel responded to Hamas’ uptick in rocket attacks with devastating air strikes of its own in Gaza and prepared for a potential ground invasion. Hundreds have been killed and wounded and the shaky cease-fire between the two sides has come to an abrupt end. This recent violence complicates an already muddled situation; both Israel and the Palestinian Authority are due for elections in the coming months which will determine their leadership. In Israel, the moderate Kadima Party led by Tzipi Livni is facing renewed challenges from the right-leaning Likud Party led by Benjamin Netanyahu. If the hardline Likud, who have been less likely to cede land to the Palestinians and have been less open to a partition of Jerusalem, regain leadership, prospects for peace could be stalled. In Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas must call an election early next year or risk creating a leadership vacuum which could be capitalized on by Hamas.
The Arab world has, unsurprisingly, roundly condemned the Israeli attacks. It’s no secret that there has been no love lost between Arabs and Jews since the creation of Israel in 1948. However, recent denunciations could have a more lasting impact. Syria’s rebuke places in doubt a much hoped-for agreement between Syria and Israel, which would have dramatically shifted power in the region away from Iran and its Hezbollah puppets in Syria. Instead, leaders of Hezbollah have now begun to call for a third intifada, or rebellion, against Israel, which would likely mean a resumption of suicide bombings for the first time since 2005.
The recent violence only cements the fact that 2009 could be a make or break year for the Middle East peace process. There have been promising signs in the region recently: the potential Syria-Israel agreement that I mentioned, willingness on the part of Saudi Arabia to take a lead in negotiations, and unrest that could topple Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a stumbling block to regional security in his own right, in his 2009 presidential election. It’s distressing to think that instead 2009 could see a total reversal. The incoming administration will have yet another tough balancing act to manage. Obama will need to restore faith in the 1994 Oslo Accords, in which both sides affirmed the need for a Palestinian state and Arab recognition of Israel, and deal with the questions of partitioning Jerusalem and how to resettle Palestinian refugees.
Sorry to be the bearer of gloomy predictions and rain on your jolly holiday parade. To make it up to you, I’m going to come up with a list of possible successes on the political horizon in 2009. Keep a lookout for that post in the next couple days.
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Don’t forget our invitation to send your thoughts and questions to theempireofthemind@yahoo.com so you can see us write about interesting things you want to read.
This entry was posted on 28 December 2008 at 16:35:51 PM and is filed under Commentary, International . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed
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Peace Collapses in Gaza
The wake of Christmas has not brought much cheer to the Middle East, or the incoming Obama administration, as Israel responded to Hamas’ uptick in rocket attacks with devastating air strikes of its own in Gaza and prepared for a potential ground invasion. Hundreds have been killed and wounded and the shaky cease-fire between the two sides has come to an abrupt end. This recent violence complicates an already muddled situation; both Israel and the Palestinian Authority are due for elections in the coming months which will determine their leadership. In Israel, the moderate Kadima Party led by Tzipi Livni is facing renewed challenges from the right-leaning Likud Party led by Benjamin Netanyahu. If the hardline Likud, who have been less likely to cede land to the Palestinians and have been less open to a partition of Jerusalem, regain leadership, prospects for peace could be stalled. In Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas must call an election early next year or risk creating a leadership vacuum which could be capitalized on by Hamas.
The Arab world has, unsurprisingly, roundly condemned the Israeli attacks. It’s no secret that there has been no love lost between Arabs and Jews since the creation of Israel in 1948. However, recent denunciations could have a more lasting impact. Syria’s rebuke places in doubt a much hoped-for agreement between Syria and Israel, which would have dramatically shifted power in the region away from Iran and its Hezbollah puppets in Syria. Instead, leaders of Hezbollah have now begun to call for a third intifada, or rebellion, against Israel, which would likely mean a resumption of suicide bombings for the first time since 2005.
The recent violence only cements the fact that 2009 could be a make or break year for the Middle East peace process. There have been promising signs in the region recently: the potential Syria-Israel agreement that I mentioned, willingness on the part of Saudi Arabia to take a lead in negotiations, and unrest that could topple Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a stumbling block to regional security in his own right, in his 2009 presidential election. It’s distressing to think that instead 2009 could see a total reversal. The incoming administration will have yet another tough balancing act to manage. Obama will need to restore faith in the 1994 Oslo Accords, in which both sides affirmed the need for a Palestinian state and Arab recognition of Israel, and deal with the questions of partitioning Jerusalem and how to resettle Palestinian refugees.
Sorry to be the bearer of gloomy predictions and rain on your jolly holiday parade. To make it up to you, I’m going to come up with a list of possible successes on the political horizon in 2009. Keep a lookout for that post in the next couple days.
Mailbag Reminder!
Don’t forget our invitation to send your thoughts and questions to theempireofthemind@yahoo.com so you can see us write about interesting things you want to read.
This entry was posted on 28 December 2008 at 16:35:51 PM and is filed under Commentary, International . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.