Senate Dems Reverse on Burris

The Washington Post is reporting this afternoon that Senate Democrats will probably seat Roland Burris later this week, after meeting with his lawyers today and deciding that his paperwork is sufficient. In hindsight, Democratic leaders probably handled this situation about as well as they could have. No one can blame Harry Reid (and Barack Obama) for expressing strong reservations about seating a Senate  appointee of an indicted (and now, impeached) governor, who didn’t even have the signature of the Illinois secretary of state to verify his selection. Although I think Burris should not have accepted the nomination (although his reported mausoleum decorated with his accomplishments makes one think that this guy might occassionally let his ambition get the better of him), he handled the situation with grace, acknowledging that neither he nor his race were an issue, but the governor who appointed him. This gave Harry Reid wiggle room to change his objection to the lack of a verification signature, which now appears to be in order, all the while making sure that Burris was in no way tainted by the Blagojevich scandal. The people of Illinois win the day.

What’s on the Horizon?

Hey, gang. Sorry for being silent for so long. I’ve had much more on my plate recently than I expected to have. Luckily I’m snowed in today, so I don’t have many excuses not to write. Here’s my list of possible surprises that could be among the headlines in 2009, in no particular order:

1. The Defeat of Ahmadinejad – Yes, he may actually lose this June’s presidential election. He’s been targeted for much of the blame behind Iran’s economic woes. Plus, most of the populace isn’t nearly as anti-American as he is, and they’re concerned that his antics could seriously damage Iran’s future prospects. However, while there are several candidates who could plausibly beat Ahmadinejad, including reformer Mehdi Karroubi and former president Mohammad Khatami, opposition is not much united. Also, Ahmadinejad enjoys the support of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei – at least for the time being.

2. Progress Toward Peace in Israel and Palestine – Don’t fall off your chairs, now. I know this sounds unlikely, given the recent escalation of violence in Gaza. But 2009 has only just begun. Israel will not stop wanting to get rid of Hamas anytime soon (nor will they stop having good reason to do so), but elections in both Israel and the Palestinian Authority could relax tension if moderates gain ground (Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in Israel and Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah in Palestine). Plus, sources keep hinting at a possible Israel-Syria peace treaty; this would be pretty Earth-shattering, given the historical animosity between the two, and the fact that it could change the balance of the region, given that Syria would be stretching its ties with ally Iran.

3. A Minor Meltdown in China – Most people have been touting China’s economic strength recently, and rightly so. However, with GDP growth rates possibly falling below the “magic number” 7% mark this fiscal year, unrest could grow, particularly among already struggling farmers. Also, soaring loan default rates, partially due to loans to failing state-owned enterprises, could cause China’s financial system to collapse. This would put a strain on a Communist Party already stressed by devolution of power to the provinces and minority groups. This may be a trying year for them.

4. The “American Century” Continues – Some claim that America’s time at the top has come to a close, and the vasty majority of foreign policy thinkers believe America will at least lose relative power. While it would be naive to think that the United States must always be the lone superpower it has been since the fall of the Soviet Union, a potential downfall may not be near in the offing. Though the doom-sayers have proclaimed a coming Great Depression, many economists believe 2009 could in fact see a recovery in the U.S. economy, aided by current government fiscal policy. Many of America’s competitors, however, could falter. China may be entering rough waters (see above). The Middle East is coming to grips with a plunge in oil prices and a resumption of violence in Palestine. Russia’s economy is plagued with potential pitfalls and its government is moving back towards repression and isolation from the rest of Europe, which is struggling just to ratify an EU constitution.

5. Readers’ Choice – Do you foresee any big suprises that I missed? Disagree with any that I mentioned? Comment, and tell me what your list would look like.

Until next time!

BREAKING NEWS: Blago to Appoint Replacement; Reid: Burris “Not Acceptable”

Just when you thought the Rod Blagojevich scandal couldn’t get any more bizarre, news broke within the last hour that the troubled Illinois governor will reportedly appoint former state attorney general Roland W. Burris to fill Barack Obama’s senate seat this afternoon. While Blago is fully within his rights to make this appointment, the fact that the governor was recently arrested for allegedly trying to sell this same senate seat, and is also in the midst of impeachment proceedings against him, makes this a politically shocking move.

But wait, there’s more! Two political crises for the price of one! MSNBC reports that word from sources close to Harry Reid indicates that Senate Democrats will attempt to stick to their pledge that no Blago appointment would be acceptable to fill the vacant seat. Constitutionally, they may be limited in their options to oppose move, but could go as far as taking a rare vote to actually prevent Burris from taking his seat in the Senate.

I can’t wait to see how this mess plays out. Keep checking back with Empire for updates, and also for my upcoming piece on potential bright spots in 2009 politics, which I should get around to posting shortly after New Year’s.

Another Governor Acting Naughty, not Nice

If Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) thought he couldn’t have a worse Christmas, what with a scandal-ridden administration already suffering approval numbers nearing the single digits, he was sorely mistaken. Just when you thought the Republicans had the edge in the corruption game (save for Hail Marys by Elliot Spitzer and William Jefferson), the perpetually shady governor was arrested today on charges that he had tried to “sell” President-elect Obama’s vacant Senate seat. This drastically changes the dynamic of the appointment; if Blagojevich stays in office, anyone he picks will be forced to become a seat-filler until 2010 regardless of how clean their records might be. If he resigns, Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn (D) would be thrust into a first official act as governor that he is likely not prepared to make and be forced to prove his own innocence in the corruption case. Dick Durbin (D), Illinois’s senior senator, has called on the state legislature to call a special election to fill the vacancy. Rep. Jesse L. Jackson, Jr. and state official Tammy Duckworth were considered frontrunners for the spot, but now the whole affair is at a standstill for the foreseeable future. After all, it’s not known whether any or all of the potential replacements could have been complicit in the governor’s illegal dealings. I expect we’ll know by week’s end whether Blagojevich will resign (I suspect he will). Illinois has not been having much luck with governors recently; you may recall that Blagojevich’s predecessor, George Ryan (R), was indicted in 2003 on corruption charges, and has since seen jail time.

On an intersting sidenote, the name of the U.S. Attorney in charge of the Blago investigation: Patrick Fitzgerald, the same prosecutor responsible for the indictment of Dick Cheney chief of staff Scooter Libby.

Sorry for the lack of updates. It’s Finals Week until Friday, at which point I plan to update every other day or so, and will hopefully have assistance from several contributors. Check back for a special piece called “Barack Obama’s Christmas List” (hint: he’s not asking Santa to give him Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe as a member of his Cabinet).

Happy Thanksgiving!

All of us here at The Empire of the Mind would like to wish you and your loved ones a joyous, healthy, and peaceful Thanksgiving, full of friendship, cheer, and plentiful reminders of all the many reasons we all have to be thankful on this day and throughout the year.

On a sadder note, Empire sends best wishes to anyone involved in the terror attacks yesterday in Mumbai, India. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all those affected and their families.

…and the Cabinet was Bare, but not for Long.

Well, in the past week the biggest stirrings in politics, next to Adrian Fenty’s wild predictions of up to 5 million people coming to the Inauguration, have been Cabinet whispers. Or yells, really. The Obama team seems to be leaking names left and right, probably in an effort to avoid some of Bush’s blunders that resulted from keeping names too secret (see “Miers, Harriet” for an example).

Department of State – Hillary Clinton. A wise choice; Clinton established herself as a pseudo-diplomat during her husband’s administration and has steered a middle course in foreign policy ever since. The only question is whether she will have Obama’s full backing so she can speak with authority when dealing with foreign leaders, something Powell and Rice found difficult during the Bush years.

National Security Adviser – Jim Jones. Awesome last name aside, all reports are that this guy is considered a dream pick for NSA because of his deep experience at the Pentagon (he served as Commandant of the Marine Corps) and in Iraq, where he has been an adviser on security forces.

Department of Defense – Bob Gates. Reports are that Gates will stay on for about a year at the Pentagon. Gates has proven himself a competent Secretary of Defense since December of 2006, and was instrumental in the “surge” of U.S. forces which is at least partly responsible for the return of relative stability to Iraq. Amid all the change going on in Washington, stability in the military is key, so Gates is a great choice

Department of Homeland Security - Janet Napolitano. The Governor of Arizona’s pick makes me wonder if Obama is trying to signal that an effort at immigration reform is coming by picking a border state governor for the DHS job. Immigration is, after all, one of DHS’s main roles, although counter-terror got the top billing during the Bush years.

Department of Justice – Eric Holder. I must admit that Holder’s nomination surprises me. Holder was originally appointed a DC circuit judge under Ronald Reagan before joining the Clinton DoJ, eventually rising to Deputy AG. During the Bush years, he was a leading advocate for reauthorization of the PATRIOT Act, which has been a thorn in the Democratic Party’s side since it was first adopted, and said in an interview that anyone at Justice opposing the Bush security policies (wiretapping and torture?) should be fired.

These are the only positions I feel qualified to comment on. If you have any strong feelings about Bill Richardson at Commerce, Tom Daschle at HHS, etc. please comment away. The only other thing I will say is that from everything I hear, Obama’s leading economic advisers (Timothy Geithner, Paul Volcker, Austan Goulsbee, Larry Summers) seem to be moderate, thoughtful, and pragmatic economists.

Stay tuned to Empire for more coverage of the Obama transition and make sure to keep an eye out for the first installment of the “Empire in the Middle East” series coming in early February.

Election 2008: In the Rearview Mirror

Well, the 2008 election is two weeks behind us, except in Minnesota and Alaska, who are still trying to figure out who their senators are going to be. But felons and comedians aside, I now plan to take a look at this marvelous ride that was this past election. (I tried to be as comprehensive as possible, which is hard to do in under 600 words so I hope y’all aren’t too disappointed.)

Barack Obama

After months of pundits and pollsters harping about the infallibility of the Clinton machine, Obama did the unthinkable by beating that machine in a head-to-head nomination fight that dragged on much longer than it needed to. With the divisions of the primary season behind him, Obama needed to prove his mettle to assume the Oval Office. Really, he had to avoid messing anything up, and he did so with a flare. Obama transformed himself from a candidate of high (and often vague) rhetoric to a nominee with a plan and an experienced sidekick to boot. In such a heavily Democratic year, it was his to lose; bucking the recent trend in the Democratic Party (you know, the “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” thing), he did an admirable job of proving to the voters that he was ready to assume the office. Though, to be candid, your author does not agree with many of his policies, certainly Obama’s election should be met with respect and admiration that a black man could be elected president in an America so recently riven with racial strife. Obama will likely be able to improve the face of America to the world at a time when such help is desperately needed, and has that contagious aura of hope that inspires so many people at a time, again, when inspiration is badly needed.

John McCain

McCain should end his campaign feeling few regrets. Perhaps alone among Republicans, he was able to fight out this race and keep it competitive, though the odds were against him from the start. His pick of Sarah Palin was intriguing, but disappointing when she was tested. Her interviews were horrendous, and her debate skills utterly lacking. McCain, a life-long public servant, was forced instead to become a politician, a change that did not suit him well. His choice to return to Washington to work on the recovery was well-intentioned, but backfired. Despite all these failings, and the inevitability of the generational shift to Obama, at his peaks – most notably his acceptance speech at the Convention and his concession speech on election night – McCain rose to a new level and spoke with an honesty few others in public office ever muster. He was not able to sell a coherent vision; this was not his moment. However, for all his faults, his loss should not detract from the greatness of the man.

In Summary

All in all, it’s good that this election has come to a close. America needs to move on, and hopefully President-elect Obama will steer the country in a positive direction. If, at the end of his term, we can look back at an administration that helped restore America’s faith in its leaders, fostered respect and friendship across the political spectrum despite differences of opinion, and acted in a way that was true to our country’s values, we will likely have experienced a successful presidency. You can check back in 2012 to see whether or not that happens. Better yet, keep checking Empire for regular (I promise!) updates. Our next item of business will be an analysis of President-elect Obama’s cabinet choices, when he picks them. Stay tuned!

Pennsylvania’s Lieutenant Governor Dies

Pennsylvania tonight mourns the passing of Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll, the first woman to hold that position in the Commonwealth. Ms. Baker Knoll was 78 and was undergoing treatment for cancer at the time of her death. A lifelong Pennsylvania public servant, Ms. Baker Knoll was respected for her many historic achievements but also had to deal with critics who accused her of unusual behavior. Joe Scarnati, Republican President Pro Tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate, now assumes the role of Lieutenant Governor. On a political note, the placement of a Republican as next in line for the governorship virtually eliminates Pennsylvania’s popular Democratic governor, Ed Rendell, as a contender for a Cabinet position under President-elect Barack Obama’s administration.

Empire Strikes Back

As loyal readers will have noticed, these pages have been silent for quite some time, including during the most historic presidential election of my short 20 year lifetime. Not covering the election on a political blog is, I admit, somewhat shameful, and I’ve been flogged accordingly. You can rest assured I talked about it non-stop virtually everywhere else. The reason for my silence has been the sheer amount of work I’ve had to do, which will peak sometime this weekend, I think, and then decline, so look for Empire to start clicking away more frequently in the not-so-distant future. Also, I plan to take the blog in a bit of a different direction, offering more analysis rather than mere news which you could get at a hundred other sources. On a more long-term note, I’ll be in Amman, Jordan this spring and plan to make a concentrated effort to write here regularly about politics, news, and life in the Middle East, as well as keeping abreast of the many goings-on back in the States. But that’s just a teaser of what is to come. Stay tuned!

NOTE: My next post, coming likely within the next week, will be a thorough (hopefully) analysis of the election. Make sure to check it out and give feedback, whether you agree completely, think it’s a load of manure, or anything in between.

Gustav’s Wake and the Palin Pregnancy

Those of you that have been following the news for the past few days are likely aware of the top two stories at the moment: the landfall of Hurricane Gustav and the announcement by Sarah Palin that her 17-year-old daughter is 5 months pregnant.

The first of these stories is largely good news. Gustav seems to have affected the Gulf region no worse than an average hurricane; certainly a hurricane’s landfall is never a good thing, but having seen in person Katrina’s affect on New Orleans and the Gulf, we could not help but breathe a huge sigh of relief that fears of a Katrina-like mega-storm did not materialize. Of course, we have to be guarded in our assessments so soon after the storm. Still, it certainly seems that the flood prevention infrastructure in the city held up this time around and that government response on all levels was a marked improvement from the Katrina tragedy. We can only hope that the learning that has taken place since 2005 grows and expands so that a similar debacle can be avoided in the future.

As to the stories about Ms. Palin’s pregnancy, we here at Empire believe that this event is purely a family issue which has no relevance to the campaign and that it should be left out of the public eye. We wish the Palin family the best and will say no more on the matter, although other Empire contributors are free to comment if they wish.

Stay tuned for coverage of the Republican National Convention, which seems to be in the midst of a return to normal routine.

UPDATE: A Very Biden Labor Day

As we’ve been reporting, Joe Biden is visiting his hometown of Scranton today. The current owner of Biden’s childhood home hosted a neighborhood discussion on important issues in the campaign. According to reports, Biden spoke of the need to bring American troops home from Iraq, provide health care to those who can’t afford it, and to invest in creative solutions to the country’s current energy woes. He also referred to John McCain as out of touch with the needs of the American people while calling Barack Obama “ahead of the curve.” Following a brief press conference with reporters, Biden visited the home of Ellen Casey, wife of the late Gov. Robert P. Casey, whose son serves as U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania. To cap off the day, Biden briefly stopped by Scranton’s La Festa Italiana, where he appeared with Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and Senator Bob Casey Jr. Empire was on hand as part of a small crowd witnessing the visit (due to the relatively unpublicized nature of the visit, it seemed most La Festa patrons were unaware of Biden’s presence). Biden’s trip to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton International Airport was delayed only to receive delivery of an order of pizza and wings from one of the vendors at the festival, which he happily began to consume as the motorcade pulled away.

In Other News

As the Democratic vice presidential nominee was busy visting his hometown, Republicans on Monday were in the midst of an unprecedented situation: how to deal with Hurricane Gustav’s landfall at the beginning of the GOP convention? The first day’s proceedings have largely been scrapped, with only essential business being conducted away from the public eye. This shortened convention will likely prove beneficial for the party, because it will become more focused around a smaller amount of speakers which should help to keep the public’s attention. Also, President Bush and Vice President Cheney have canceled their appearances; it will likely prove convenient for the Republicans not to have the unpopular leaders in the spotlight, especially in the midst of a disaster which conjures memories of Katrina and the botched government relief efforts of three years ago. It seems that Republicans have decided to focus their convention on “Americans helping Americans” rather than on the political spectacle normally associated with the gatherings, which could stand in sharp contrast to the rock concert-like environment that surrounded Barack Obama’s acceptance speech. Rumors are swirling that McCain’s own acceptance speech may not be in Minnesota at all, but on the ground in the Gulf region, much as FDR did in 1944 when he accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination from a U.S. Naval base rather than in person. This attitude may also restore a personal and lighter touch to a party whose brand is at its weakest point in many years.