Sorry for the silence, folks. I never intended to take a week off, it just sort of worked out that way. Now that Empire’s back and kicking, I thought I’d tackle House races in two districts which might become two surprise upsets for the GOP in a Democratic year.
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski (D) vs. Lou Barletta (R)
Twelve-term Democratic Congressman Kanjorski finds himself being upstaged by Barletta, a popular mayor from Hazleton in the southern part of the district. Barletta made national news last spring and summer with his staunch anti-illegal immigrant policies, some of the toughest in the nation. These moves helped to earn him the title “Mayor of the Year” from the PA Mayor’s Association. Meanwhile, Kanjorski has made the news for less positive reasons; some have criticized his comments in an interview with CBS as arrogant and disrespectful of the sacredness of taxpayer money. Indeed, Kanjorski’s last race against Barletta, in 2002, was a close one, and that was before Barletta’s recent celebrity. Thanks to gerrymandering, however, the usually solidly Democratic district has become even more so since 2000. Barletta’s bright spots will be his rampant popularity in the Hazleton area and the reddening of some rural areas and possibly parts of the Poconos in the district’s east. Kanjorski is a household name respected across the region, and a senior Democrat in Congress. He’s pro-drilling, pro-life, pro-gun, and tough on illegals (though not as high profile in doing so as Barletta); in other words, his views are very close to those of his conservative Democratic constituents. The question will be whether the people are sick of Kanjorski and opt instead for a fresh face. This race could be close. Barletta’s polls show him doing well; Kanjorski hasn’t released his, but is advertising early (as is the DCCC), which shows he’s either concerned or at least cautious.
Empire’s pick: Kanjorski by a narrow margin.
PA-10: Chris Carney (D) vs. Chris Hackett (R)
This battle of Chris vs. Chris pits the freshman Carney against businessman Hackett. Carney, a former political science professor, entered the House by beating a Republican incumbent badly damaged by scandal; the once-popular former businessman Don Sherwood had been christened as the successor to long-time Congressman Joseph McDade. Hackett has been running to the right, emphasizing his family values and fiscal responsibility. Questions for each side: Was Carney’s win a fluke in a heavily Republican district, or can he hold on? Can the Republicans, who were fractured in the primaries in a Clinton-Obama fashion, rally around Hackett and propel him to victory despite the overall favorable climate for Dems?
Empire’s pick: Toss up with slight advantage to Hackett.
Stay tuned to Empire, which will be updated much more frequently, I promise. Future analysis will include the ongoing situation in Georgia, coverage of the Olympics in Beijing and their effects on China, continuing coverage of the presidential race, and of course big political events great and small that pop up. Is there something you’d like to see discussed that hasn’t been brought up on Empire? Post a comment!
