Iepoch will serve as Acting Moderator until I establish a reliable internet connection. I’ll see you then. Stay safe and stay informed!

-A recap of the inauguration – mixed-up oath and all – and, of course, an analysis of Barack Obama’s speech

-An assessment of the goings-on in Gaza.

-News and analysis regarding the new Obama Administration

-Updates on Congress’s activities, including the stimulus package.

Until then, keep checking back!

1. The Defeat of Ahmadinejad – Yes, he may actually lose this June’s presidential election. He’s been targeted for much of the blame behind Iran’s economic woes. Plus, most of the populace isn’t nearly as anti-American as he is, and they’re concerned that his antics could seriously damage Iran’s future prospects. However, while there are several candidates who could plausibly beat Ahmadinejad, including reformer Mehdi Karroubi and former president Mohammad Khatami, opposition is not much united. Also, Ahmadinejad enjoys the support of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei – at least for the time being.

2. Progress Toward Peace in Israel and Palestine – Don’t fall off your chairs, now. I know this sounds unlikely, given the recent escalation of violence in Gaza. But 2009 has only just begun. Israel will not stop wanting to get rid of Hamas anytime soon (nor will they stop having good reason to do so), but elections in both Israel and the Palestinian Authority could relax tension if moderates gain ground (Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in Israel and Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah in Palestine). Plus, sources keep hinting at a possible Israel-Syria peace treaty; this would be pretty Earth-shattering, given the historical animosity between the two, and the fact that it could change the balance of the region, given that Syria would be stretching its ties with ally Iran.

3. A Minor Meltdown in China – Most people have been touting China’s economic strength recently, and rightly so. However, with GDP growth rates possibly falling below the “magic number” 7% mark this fiscal year, unrest could grow, particularly among already struggling farmers. Also, soaring loan default rates, partially due to loans to failing state-owned enterprises, could cause China’s financial system to collapse. This would put a strain on a Communist Party already stressed by devolution of power to the provinces and minority groups. This may be a trying year for them.

4. The “American Century” Continues – Some claim that America’s time at the top has come to a close, and the vasty majority of foreign policy thinkers believe America will at least lose relative power. While it would be naive to think that the United States must always be the lone superpower it has been since the fall of the Soviet Union, a potential downfall may not be near in the offing. Though the doom-sayers have proclaimed a coming Great Depression, many economists believe 2009 could in fact see a recovery in the U.S. economy, aided by current government fiscal policy. Many of America’s competitors, however, could falter. China may be entering rough waters (see above). The Middle East is coming to grips with a plunge in oil prices and a resumption of violence in Palestine. Russia’s economy is plagued with potential pitfalls and its government is moving back towards repression and isolation from the rest of Europe, which is struggling just to ratify an EU constitution.

5. Readers’ Choice – Do you foresee any big suprises that I missed? Disagree with any that I mentioned? Comment, and tell me what your list would look like.

Until next time!

2008 was a great year for Empire. I got the politics-writing bug while working in D.C., resurrected a dormant blog and actually kept at it. While I’m not posting once a day like I was in the summer, I think I’ve settled into a regular pattern. And I’m thrilled that we have several fantastic contributors who have been and will continue to post despite their busy lives. I’m hoping to add one or two more contributors in 2009. Once again, a big thanks to iepoch and ftfuchs for their help and their interest in continuing to write for Empire. On a personal note, I’m planning to start up a personal blog in the next few days (it’s really about time). I don’t expect to post a link on Empire, so send an email to theempireofthemind@yahoo.com if you’d like me to send you the link.

As I’ve mentioned before, at the end of January I’ll be leaving for a semester in Amman, Jordan. That will entail a short break in my posting. But after I settle in and determine how much access I can get to an internet source, I hope to give you my take on what’s going on in the Middle East. That should be all the more interesting considering the events going on in Gaza and a potential visit to the region by Pope Benedict in May, among other things. In the summer, I’m hoping to be either back down in D.C. or working for a member of Congress in a local office and I’ll try to incorporate that into my posts on Empire.

So what will I personally be doing differently in 2009? Glad you asked! Well, I’ve tacked on more than a few extra pounds in 2008 that I’d like to bid farewell to, and I want to in general practice healthier eating. I used to do some really cool hiking and backpacking in my Boy Scout days; there are ample opportunities where I live to do that, so I’d really like to get out and be in the wilderness every once in a while. If I could in Jordan, that would be awesome. I’ve committed myself to learning at least three new facts about the world each day (and not just in politics) and at least one new thing about a friend each week. I’m planning to start keeping a journal and to supplement it by carrying a camera around to take pictures of my life (important and mundane events alike). I’d like to try my hand at writing music (just got some software for that very purpose). In addition, I’ve resolved to listen to at least two new songs from various genres every day – my musical knowledge is not what it should be. I’ve resolved to read more fiction and to watch more movies as well (who said New Years resolutions can’t be fun?). I’d also like to revive my French abilities and expand my skills in Spanish and Italian. Adding more Arabic is a given since I’ll be doing at least three hours a day in class alone while I’m in Amman. I also feel I don’t do enough for others, so I’d like to carve out some time in my schedule for volunteering, and to get involved again in some local events I used to do, like Race for the Cure, that help good causes.

That’s all material for my aforementioned personal blog, of course, but I’ll try to work in a few relevant bits here and there on my Empire posts as well. This is part of my most important goal for Empire in 2009: I will make this blog more fun! So many of my friends (our own iepoch included) have blog-writing styles that make their blogs really enjoyable to read, while I tend to write almost journalistically (made-up word?). This is strange because it’s not at all the way I think about politics. I see politics as an adventurous game which yields strong emotions that range from depressing (e.g., Zimbabwe and Gaza) to truly amusing (e.g., Blago and the Minnesota Senate race). I promise that I’ll still be informative and detailed with my analysis, but I’ll try to due justice to the colorful nature of the subject.

Finally, a great big thank you to everyone who reads or has read The Empire of the Mind, whether you visited once or, in the case of the truly insane, every day. Watching that little ticker on the right that counts Empire’s hits go up means a great deal to me because it means that someone is checking out our experiments in political and news analysis. Whether you love us, hate us, or feel passionate indifference, we appreciate the fact that you’re stopping by, and hope that you’ll continue to do so in 2009.

But wait, there’s more! Two political crises for the price of one! MSNBC reports that word from sources close to Harry Reid indicates that Senate Democrats will attempt to stick to their pledge that no Blago appointment would be acceptable to fill the vacant seat. Constitutionally, they may be limited in their options to oppose move, but could go as far as taking a rare vote to actually prevent Burris from taking his seat in the Senate.

I can’t wait to see how this mess plays out. Keep checking back with Empire for updates, and also for my upcoming piece on potential bright spots in 2009 politics, which I should get around to posting shortly after New Year’s.

The Arab world has, unsurprisingly, roundly condemned the Israeli attacks. It’s no secret that there has been no love lost between Arabs and Jews since the creation of Israel in 1948. However, recent denunciations could have a more lasting impact. Syria’s rebuke places in doubt a much hoped-for agreement between Syria and Israel, which would have dramatically shifted power in the region away from Iran and its Hezbollah puppets in Syria. Instead, leaders of Hezbollah have now begun to call for a third intifada, or rebellion, against Israel, which would likely mean a resumption of suicide bombings for the first time since 2005.

The recent violence only cements the fact that 2009 could be a make or break year for the Middle East peace process. There have been promising signs in the region recently: the potential Syria-Israel agreement that I mentioned, willingness on the part of Saudi Arabia to take a lead in negotiations, and unrest that could topple Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a stumbling block to regional security in his own right, in his 2009 presidential election. It’s distressing to think that instead 2009 could see a total reversal. The incoming administration will have yet another tough balancing act to manage. Obama will need to restore faith in the 1994 Oslo Accords, in which  both sides affirmed the need for a Palestinian state and Arab recognition of Israel, and deal with the questions of partitioning Jerusalem and how to resettle Palestinian refugees.

Sorry to be the bearer of gloomy predictions and rain on your jolly holiday parade. To make it up to you, I’m going to come up with a list of possible successes on the political horizon in 2009. Keep a lookout for that post in the next couple days.

Mailbag Reminder!

Don’t forget our invitation to send your thoughts and questions to theempireofthemind@yahoo.com so you can see us write about interesting things you want to read.

theempireofthemind@yahoo.com

Once we get an e-mail, we’ll decide which of us should cover it and come up with a post as soon as we can.

And while we’re talking about contributors, I’d like to welcome a new contributor to Empire, ftfuchs. Fred is an economics and finance wiz who also has a deep understanding of national and world affairs. We’re looking forward to seeing Fred’s thoughts on these pages in the near future.

So that’s where we stand now. Send us your thoughts, and keep checking back. I think I’ve got that tech problem fixed and I plan to post every other day, hopefully, from here on out.

1. Afghanistan – The war here is not going well. Fueled by the immense corruption of Hamid Karzai’s government, the illegal opium trade (which supplies 90% of the world’s opium) is inadvertently enriching former Taliban fighters. Osama bin Laden has long since fled into Pakistan, and the NATO force has been left a historically disunited country led by tribal warlords. Additionally, individual NATO countries on the ground have had widely different approaches to the situation, which could throw off the balance in certain key areas. Afghanistan has become, in short, a mess, and it will be up to the Obama administration to sort it out to prevent the country from once again becoming a haven for those who threaten world security.

2. Iran – A nuclear Iran is on no one’s wish list this Christmas. I’m hopeful that the recent plummet in the price of oil, which will significantly restrict Ahmedinejad’s spending, will convince the regime in Tehran to take seriously the carrots and sticks offered by the new administration. Worrisome, however, is what may happen if they don’t. Many in the Arab world say they would be “perfectly fine” with either a diplomatic or military solution. Ironically, most Arab countries, despite their varying discomfort with Israel, would rather Israel take out Iran’s nuclear capacity with their own nukes because they trust Israel to not use their nuclear weapons. On the other hand, they believe that a nuclear Iran would attempt to become a regional military hegemon at their expense.

3. Pakistan -  A nuclear-armed state with a teetering government is always a recipe for disaster. One whose state organs sponsor terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba group that is believed to have carried out the Mumbai attacks last month is even worse. Pakistan’s oppressive government with its lukewarm commitment to rooting out al Qaeda members within its borders has always been a delicate issue for the U.S. government. Likely, President-elect Obama will have to make tough decisions early in his presidency about the extent to which American forces will raid into Pakistan to fight jihadists there and the question of how best to encourage Pakistan’s government to reform without causing it to fall.

4. Iraq – A new Status of Forces Agreement signed by the U.S. and Iraq in the last week ensures that the U.S. military will vacate the country by the end of 2011. This seems to alleviate one of the new president’s first problems (what to do about Iraq?) but it means that the U.S. must be vigilant to prevent a loss of the remarkable, and delicate, stability which has come to Iraq in the last year or so.

5. Africa – Africa is a continent of both great hopes and great fears. Sub-Saharan Africa seems poised on the verge of increased foreign investment and attention. But the new administration will have to deal with quite a few problems. It’s difficult to choose the most pressing, so I’ll outline them in no particular order:

1. Zimbabwe – Robert Mugabe has ravaged his country in the last 25 years. At present, inflation stands at a mind-blowing 230 million percent and unemployment is nearing 90%. And as if matters couldn’t get worse, the government last week announced a national emergency due to a cholera epidemic. With most hospitals crippled already, it will be almost impossible to deal with this threat. Mugabe lost out on billions in desperately-needed aid from the U.S. and the U.K. by not giving the opposition party even one major cabinet post. He’s a madman who must go.
2. Darfur – With countless millions killed or displaced due to one of the world’s worst genocides and a president who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, Sudan is a mess as well. The joint UN-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) has been shaky at best. The new administration must put significant pressure on the international community to step in, and must make the AU realize that if they cannot deal with Darfur on their own, the UN must take a larger role.
3. Congo – The numbers reached by the crisis in the Congo rival those of Darfur. Perhaps 4 million have been killed or displaced by fighting between the government and the forces of rebel Laurent Nkunda. The Congolese military, along with MONUC, the UN Mission in the Congo, have held the eastern city of Goma from falling, but the situation remains perilous, with Nkunda threatening to march all the way to Kinshasa to take the capital.
4. Somalia – Called by the Economist “The World’s Most Utterly Failed State,” Somalia hasn’t had a central government in over 15 years. With no way to police its own waters, this political chaos has led to a spree of piracy that severely threatens international shipping lanes through the Gulf of Aden.
5. Runners up – Chad (massive spillover from Darfur), Egypt (government more and more repressive and unable to deal with problems), Nigeria (major oil pipelines threatened by rebels) and Uganda (Lord’s Resistance Army fighting in the north).

Runner Up – The new wild card on the foreign policy front is Russia. While it’s unlikely the former superpower wields as much power as it thinks it does, Russia can upset the politics of Europe and international bodies if it chooses. And it’s certainly shown a willingness to interfere in the largely domestic issues of its neighbors (and former SSRs). And of course, there’s Vladimir Putin, working to bring back the state control of the former USSR. I’m not as concerned as some are that he’ll succeed and that Russia will regain the focus it had during the Cold War, but it will be crucial for the new administration to warm relations with Russia through finding common ground with Russia on issues such as a nuclear Iran.

That was a far longer post than I first envisioned but I think it only touches on some of President-elect Obama’s biggest foreign policy threats. I haven’t even talked about North Korea, the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, China, or India, after all. I’ll save those for next time. Until then, stay tuned!

On an intersting sidenote, the name of the U.S. Attorney in charge of the Blago investigation: Patrick Fitzgerald, the same prosecutor responsible for the indictment of Dick Cheney chief of staff Scooter Libby.

Sorry for the lack of updates. It’s Finals Week until Friday, at which point I plan to update every other day or so, and will hopefully have assistance from several contributors. Check back for a special piece called “Barack Obama’s Christmas List” (hint: he’s not asking Santa to give him Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe as a member of his Cabinet).